Nuggets vs. Heat prediction, odds, time: 2023 NBA Finals Game 5 ...

The Miami Heat will look to stay alive in the series when they take on the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals on Monday. The Nuggets (53-29), seeking their first-ever NBA title, took a commanding 3-1 series lead on Friday with a 108-95 victory in Miami. Denver has won nine of 10 home playoff games, with the only loss coming in Game 2 against the Heat (44-38). Miami, meanwhile, is just the second No. 8 seed to make it this far in the postseason, joining the 1999 New York Knicks. The Heat have won four of their past six road playoff games.

Tip-off from Ball Arena in Denver is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Nuggets are 8.5-point favorites in the latest Heat vs. Nuggets odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is set at 210. Before making any Nuggets vs. Heat picks, make sure you check out what SportsLine NBA expert Larry Hartstein has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed working for Pro Football Focus. Larry tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS (61%). Those selections formed the basis of his SportsLine NFL best bets article, which finished 36-25-1. 

Hartstein also excels in MLB, college basketball and the NBA, especially when picking Denver Nuggets games. Over the past 100 Denver matchups, he is 60-38-3 against the spread (plus $1,825 for $100 players, every bet 1 unit).

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and just locked in his picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat: 

Heat vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -8.5Heat vs. Nuggets over/under: 210 pointsHeat vs. Nuggets money line: Heat +310, Nuggets -400MIA: The Heat are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games against a team with a winning % of greater than.600DEN: The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overallHeat vs. Nuggets picks: See pick at SportsLine
Why the Nuggets can cover 

Nikola Jokic continues to assert his dominance on the court. In Friday's Game 4 victory, Jokic played a series-low 37 minutes, but still registered a double-double with 23 points and 12 rebounds. He also had four assists, three steals and three blocks. Jokic is averaging 30.8 points in the series and 30.1 during the postseason.

Jamal Murray has been the perfect complement to Jokic's play. The point guard is averaging 26.7 points, 7.1 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 39.8 minutes of action this postseason. He has three double-doubles and one triple-double in the four games against the Heat. In Game 4, he was limited to a series-low 15 points, but dished out a series-high 12 assists. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Jimmy Butler has been Miami's offensive catalyst, leading the team in scoring in 16 of 21 postseason games. He has reached double-digit scoring in all 21 playoff games, including 16 with 20 or more, five with 30 or more and two with 40 or more, including a 56-point effort against top-seeded Milwaukee in the first round. He is averaging 27.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.7 steals per game in the playoffs. He also has four double-doubles.

Caleb Martin is coming off an 11-point and five-rebound effort in Game 4. In 22 postseason games, including four starts, he is averaging 13 points, 3.6 assists and 1.5 rebounds. He is connecting on 53.3% of his field goals, including 44% from 3-point range. Martin has reached double-figure scoring in 15 games, including four with 20 or more points. See which team to pick here.

How to make Heat vs. Nuggets picks

Hartstein is leaning Over on the point total, and he has identified a critical X-factor he says makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can find out what it is, and see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Heat vs. Nuggets, and what critical x-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the expert who has returned over $1,800 to $100 players over his last 101 Denver Nuggets picks, and find out.