Nuggets vs. Heat odds, prediction, start time: 2023 NBA Finals picks ...

The Miami Heat host the Denver Nuggets for a pivotal Game 4 matchup on Friday evening. Miami trails Denver by a 2-1 margin in the 2023 NBA Finals, with the series operating in a best-of-seven format. The Heat won Game 2 on the road in Denver, earning a split at Ball Arena. The Nuggets then won Game 3 in Miami on Wednesday evening behind triple-double efforts from both Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.

Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Caesars Sportsbook lists Denver as 3-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 210.5 in the latest Nuggets vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Nuggets picks and NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the 2023 NBA Finals a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA Finals predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Heat:

Nuggets vs. Heat spread: Nuggets -3Nuggets vs. Heat over/under: 210.5 pointsNuggets vs. Heat money line: Nuggets -165, Heat +140Denver: The Nuggets are 24-25 against the spread in road gamesMiami: The Heat are 21-29-2 against the spread in home games
Nuggets vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine Why the Nuggets can cover

Denver's Game 3 performance was wildly impressive, led by tremendous individual efforts from Jokic and Murray. Jokic led the way with 32 points, 21 rebounds, and 10 assists, with Murray adding 34 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists. In the series, Jokic is averaging 33.3 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game while shooting 59% in the series. With Murray now putting up well over 27 points per game during the playoff run, Denver's lead duo makes life difficult on Miami, and the Nuggets bring dominant offensive metrics to the table.

The Nuggets lead the playoffs in offensive rating (119.3), turnovers per game (11.6), true shooting percentage (59.7%), and points in the paint (51.6 per game). Denver is also grabbing more than 30% of available offensive rebounds in the playoffs, including 31.7% in the series, and the Nuggets are shooting 51.3% from the field against Miami. The Nuggets have also stepped up on defense in the series, posting a 110.0 defensive rating, and Denver's Game 3 showing proved that the team is more than capable of winning at Kaseya Center. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Miami faces significant pressure in Game 4, especially after a home loss in Game 3. However, the Heat have excelled at Kaseya Center during the playoffs, and Miami is known for its resilience. The Heat are 6-3 at home in the postseason, out-scoring opponents by 6.0 points per 100 possessions. Miami also pulled upsets throughout the first three rounds and won Game 2 in comeback fashion on the road. The Heat rely on a strong defense that ranked in the top 10 during the regular season, and Miami is holding opponents to under 33% shooting on 3-pointers in the playoffs.

On offense, Miami is converting almost 39% of long-range attempts and 81% of free throw attempts, winning on the margins as a result. The Heat are also taking care of the ball at an elite level, committing only 11.7 turnovers per game in the postseason and only 7.7 giveaways per game in the series against the Nuggets. With Bam Adebayo excelling by averaging 23 points and 13 rebounds per game in the series, Miami can also take solace in strong play in the middle of the floor. See which team to pick here.

How to make Nuggets vs. Heat picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, with 11 players projected to score at least nine points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.