In a flyweight bout in the main event, Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 45 — also known as UFC Vegas 74 — at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 45: Kara-France vs. Albazi odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims are on ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.
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Kara-France is coming off a 3rd-round KO/TKO title fight loss against Brandon Moreno at UFC 277 in July 2022. That halted a 3-bout win streak which included a knockout of Cody Garbrandt at UFC 269 in Dec. 2021.
Kara-France has secured victories in 7 of his 10 fights since arriving at the UFC level, with 6 of those 10 bouts needing the help of the judges to decide a winner. He has 2 wins via KO/TKO, with one loss via the KO/TKO, and he was also submitted by Brandon Royval at UFC 253 in Sept. 2020.
Albazi is on a 5-fight win streak, including all 4 of his fights since arriving at the UFC level. He picked up a 3rd-round KO/TKO against Alessandro Costa last time out in mid-December and just one of his fights has ended up going the distance.
The 30-year-old Kara-France holds a 4.70-to-3.54 significant strikes landed per minute at the UFC level, although Albazi easily has the advantage in the ground game with a 2.47 takedown average and 0.82 submission average, compared to a 0.51 takedown average and 0.00 submission average for Kara-France.
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:02 a.m. ET.
Fight result (2-way line): Kara-France -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Albazi -115 (bet $115 to win $100) Over/Under: 3.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +125) Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +110 | No -140) UFC on ESPN 45: Kara-France vs. Albazi picks and predictionsRecords: Kara-France (24-10-0) | Albazi (16-1-0)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)KARA-FRANCE (-105) is a slight underdog, but this opponent is a huge step up for Albazi.
It’s been more than 8 calendar years since Kara-France has lost consecutive fights, falling in the 3 straight outings at the Australian Fighting Championship, Malaysia Invasion 2 Grand Finals and Kunlun Fight 18, back in 2014 and 2015.
Kara-France throws a lot of punches, although he isn’t nearly as accurate as Albazi. “The Prince” Albazi lands his significant strikes at 53.77% rate compared to just 44.58% for the underdog.
As long as Kara-France can avoid going to the mat, where Albazi is a stud, he should be able to outlast the Iraqi flyweight who fights out of Xtreme Couture.
Over/Under (O/U)YES (+110): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a solid value play at plus money. Kara-France will look to frustrate Albazi and keep the fight upright.
While Albazi has gone the distance in just 1 of his 4 fights at the UFC level, Kara-France has needed the assistance of the judges to figure out a winner in 6 of his 10 fights in the UFC.
OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (-165) is not priced out of line if you’d like a little wiggle room for a potential finish in the 2nd half of Round 4 or all of Round 5.
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