Fifa Women's World Cup 2023: Football Ferns v Philippines - Calm ...

Football Ferns players celebrate after beating Norway. Photo / Photosport

The Football Ferns are on the brink of history but will need calm heads to prevail in the capital on Tuesday night.

The historic victory over Norway last week has put them in a wonderful position in the Fifa Women’s World Cup, however football at this level is a sport of fine margins.

If they win tonight against the Philippines in Wellington (5.30pm), they will be on the brink of the knockout stages, though there are several possible permutations in Group A.

A positive result will heap pressure on Norway, who would then have to win against Switzerland in Hamilton later on Tuesday (8pm) to stay alive in the tournament.

There is also the possibility of three teams ending up on six points – if Norway won their final two matches and Switzerland edged the Ferns in Dunedin on Sunday – which would mean goal difference, then goals scored, used as potential tie breakers.

But the Ferns aren’t getting caught up in the maths. Players and staff are focused on controlling their own destiny, which means maintaining – and ideally improving – the performance baseline from Eden Park.

There is also an awareness that this match is a potential banana skin. The Philippines can’t be underestimated.

They had some promising moments in the 2-0 loss to Switzerland last Friday and will be better for the run.

That game was their World Cup debut – a big deal for the nation – and there is a sense that the squad have settled after that. As underdogs, they’ll walk out on Tuesday night with nothing to lose.

It makes them a dangerous opponent and while a Philippines win would be a shock, in football terms it wouldn’t compare with the Ferns tipping over Norway last week.

The world No 46 Philippines have seven players at European clubs, three in the A-League and one in Brazil. In that way they can’t be compared to fellow minnows Vietnam, whose squad is entirely domestic-based.

The Asian team will take confidence from their performance against New Zealand last September in California. They led 1-0 with 20 minutes to play, before a Meikayla Moore penalty and a rare Ali Riley goal gave the Ferns the win.

New Zealand came home strong but the Philippines hit the post in stoppage time and were competitive throughout the match.

However, the Ferns have improved considerably since then and were without Victoria Esson, CJ Bott, Rebekah Stott, Katie Bowen, Ria Percival, Hannah Wilkinson and Malia Steinmetz that day.

Tuesday will also be about dealing with the pressure of the occasion.

If last week was about hope, this game is about expectation. That’s a different mindset – for both players and fans – and the Ferns will need to be patient, especially if the Philippines prove tough to break down.

The Asian team will be well organised and are likely to employ a 5-3-2 formation, prepared to pack their defence and play on the counter.

Coach Jitka Klimková will also need to manage her squad, with three group matches across 11 days.

Eight Ferns played the full 100 minutes last Thursday, in a match that had massive physical demands, especially in the second half as the game opened up.

• The Football Ferns will progress to the second round if they win and Norway do not beat Switzerland.

• Philippines will be eliminated if they lose and Switzerland avoid defeat in Hamilton.

Michael Burgess has been a sports journalist since 2005, winning several national awards and covering Olympics, Fifa World Cups and America’s Cup campaigns. A football aficionado, Burgess will never forget the noise that greeted Rory Fallon’s goal against Bahrain in Wellington in 2009.