In a novel approach to predicting election outcomes, three young entrepreneurs have developed an AI polling startup that offers faster and cheaper predictions than traditional pollsters.
The model will be put to the test in the upcoming 2024 Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris election.
What Happened: The startup, Aaru, was co-founded by 19-year-old college dropouts, Cam Fink and Ned Koh, along with 15-year-old John Kessler, reported Semafor.
The team uses census and demographic data to create AI avatars of voters, each with hundreds of personality traits. These avatars are then fed with news and information, and polled on their voting preferences.
The Aaru team has recreated the electorate in key states with representative bots and polled them about their preferences.
The models had access to news up until midnight Sunday, including information about Trump's weekend rally in Pennsylvania and Harris' in Michigan.
See Also: Steve Ballmer Is Betting $40M On Facts As Heated Trump-Harris Battle Reaches Peak Crescendo
The simulation has been run multiple times, predicting the probability of Trump winning Arizona at 73.3%, North Carolina at 62.1%, and Georgia at 61.8%.
Meanwhile, Harris' odds of winning Michigan are predicted at 63.3%, Nevada at 53.4%, Pennsylvania at 52.4% and Wisconsin at 50.9%.
Aaru's system, designed to be faster and more cost-effective than traditional polling, has the advantage of bots always “answering the phone.”
However, experts from Harvard's Ash Center warn that outdated training data could introduce errors, emphasizing that humans may still be needed to fill in gaps, the report noted.
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Why It Matters: The 2024 U.S. presidential election, set for Nov. 5, will see Democratic nominee Harris go head-to-head with Republican candidate Trump.
While Harris held a narrow lead over Trump in the last Morning Consult poll before Election Day, prediction markets and betting odds have shown her trailing the former president significantly.
The last Emerson poll indicated a tight contest between the candidates, challenging the strong victory for Trump projected by prediction markets and sportsbooks.
On the eve of the election, Trump regained his lead over Harris in online prediction markets. However, analysts from FiveThirtyEight, and Nate Silver noted that the race remained too close to definitively predict a winner.
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