What's next for Gov. Tim Walz after failed vice presidential bid?

The governor returns to Minnesota after months on the national stage. The makeup of the Legislature he will be working with next year remains uncertain, as do his plans when his current term ends in two years.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and his wife Gwen Walz listen as Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a concession speech after the 2024 presidential election on the campus of Howard University on Wednesday. (Jacquelyn Martin/The Associated Press)

Gov. Tim Walz is coming back to Minnesota politically bruised after three months courting voters across the country as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate.

Instead of stepping into the vice presidency, Walz will continue the job of leading Minnesota with two years left in his term, and a complex state budget season fast approaching.

Beyond that, Donald Trump and JD Vance’s win leaves Walz’s political future uncertain.

The 60-year-old Minnesotan’s quick rise from relatively little-known governor to Harris’ No. 2 took many by surprise. Walz spent his few months on Harris’ ticket racing through battleground states trying to boost turnout and win over voters with his Midwestern dad brand of politics.

“Thank you to folks across this country who wrapped their arms around our family,” Walz told supporters in Harrisburg, Pa., on Election Day. “I hope you saw yourselves in us, middle-class folks who are just trying to do the right thing.”

Many of those battleground states went for Trump, including the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Walz was visibly emotional as Harris gave her concession speech in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to a crowd while delivering her concession speech at The Yard at Howard University in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. (Renée Jones Schneider/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The governor will return to Minnesota, where a majority of voters supported the Harris-Walz ticket and where many Democrats had been preparing for the possibility of Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan stepping into the state’s top job.

Almost 51% of Minnesota voters backed the Democratic ticket this year, while about 47% picked Trump and Vance. In the 2020 election, more than 52% of voters backed President Joe Biden and Harris, while roughly 45% voted for Trump and Mike Pence.

Speculation started early Wednesday on what contributed to Harris’ loss, including questions of whether Walz was the right running mate. Some pundits have suggested Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who was a top contender for the role, might have been a stronger choice and given her a better chance at winning that state.

However, researchers and political scientists said a running mate’s influence on voters is generally minimal.

It’s unlikely Walz or Vance played a major role in the election outcome, said Christopher Devine, who co-authored the book, “Do Running Mates Matter?: The Influence of Vice Presidential Candidates in Presidential Elections.” Instead, he emphasized broader factors at play, like President Joe Biden’s unpopularity and widespread pessimism about the economy.

“VP picks matter, but we should always think of these things as being on the margins,” said Devine, who is an associate professor of political science at University of Dayton. “And if someone is looking for someone or something to blame for Kamala Harris’ loss, I don’t think Tim Walz is the right person to focus on.”

Governor Tim Walz greets people in the crowd after Vice President Kamala Harris conceded the presidential election to Donald Trump at The Yard at Howard University in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. (Renée Jones Schneider/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

It remains to be seen whether Walz will seek a third round as governor or look to another public office. Minnesota does not limit the number of terms a governor can serve.

A spokesman said Walz was headed back to Minnesota on Wednesday and continuing his work as governor.

Vice presidential candidates on losing teams often continue in the roles that got them noticed, said Barbara Norrander, an emeritus professor at University of Arizona’s School of Government and Public Policy.

Hillary Clinton’s running mate, U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, remained in Congress, as did Mitt Romney’s pick, former U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan. Sarah Palin briefly continued as governor after campaigning with John McCain and later lost a bid for Congress. John Kerry’s running mate John Edwards ran for president four years later but didn’t get the Democratic nomination.

“What comes next depends on what the candidate wants, whether they really hunger for the presidency,” Devine said. “There’s no rule for this. There are options, but it depends on a lot of things including whether there is a clearer inheritor of the party nomination and if the person in question actually even wants to be president.”

The makeup of the Minnesota Legislature that Walz will be working with next year remains to be seen.

At a Minnesota GOP watch party on election night, House Minority Leader Lisa Demuth, R-Cold Spring, said things were looking “very, very positive” for Republicans in the House.

”We need to hold Governor Walz — when he comes back — more accountable,” Demuth said. “There has been none.”

The DFL previously held the state government trifecta: Control of the House, Senate and governor’s office. The party used it to push through an array of long-held Democratic goals in the 2023 budget year.

Walz and legislators will need to reach another budget deal in the 2025 session. The governor’s plan for the next two years of state spending has been in the works for months and he must propose it by the end of January.

Lawmakers passed a nearly $72 billion budget two years ago, by far the largest in state history. Republicans decried the jump in state spending but DFL leaders stressed at the time that a large chunk of the roughly 40% increase was one-time spending. Whether the next budget will drop substantially remains uncertain, given inflationary and spending pressures.

Christopher Vondracek and Ryan Faircloth contributed to this report.