All you need to know: State of Origin 2024, game I predictions

Players scuffle during game three of the State of Origin 2023 series between New South Wales and Queensland. Photo / Getty Images

State of Origin I - New South Wales v Queensland, Accor Stadium, Wednesday 10:05pm

Who’s playing?

It’s that time of year again.

The best Australian rugby league has to offer, squaring up against each other. State against state, mate against mate.

This year is the 43rd series between Queensland and New South Wales, and it promises to be a cracker.

With four losses from the past five series, the Blues have made real change. Former Kiwis coach Michael Maguire has taken charge and handed debuts to five newbies for tonight’s opener.

Queensland meanwhile appear much more settled under former fullback Billy Slater, with most of the side that claimed last year’s series backing up.

Where is it?

This year’s opener will be staged in Sydney, giving New South Wales the perfect opportunity to start the series on the front foot.

Last year saw Game I played in Adelaide of all places, where the Maroons took a 26-18 victory.

Game two will be played in Melbourne, on neutral territory, while the finale will be hosted by Brisbane’s Suncorp Stadium - Queensland’s traditional stronghold.

Who should I cheer for?

That’s up to you.

Despite our love-hate relationship with Australian sporting teams, Kiwis have generally had no issue picking a side to get behind come State of Origin.

The arrival of Michael Maguire as New South Wales coach, after his fantastic spell with the Kiwis at test level, gives a reason to get behind the Blues.

Meanwhile, the influence of Sir Graham Lowe on Queensland has in the past also seen a lot of New Zealanders get behind the Maroons.

Whichever side a NZ-based fan gets behind, they won’t be hard-pressed to find others of the same ilk, or rivals for that matter.

Are there any Warriors playing?

Yes! Well, kind of.

After a brilliant start to 2024, Mitch Barnett has earned his first call-up for New South Wales. However, being listed in the No 20 jersey, it’s highly unlikely he’ll get a run, unless Maguire wants to make a late change to his side.

Elsewhere, former Warrior Reece Walsh lines up in Queensland’s No. 1 jersey, as a loose connection to the Kiwi club.

Players to watch?

Relatively speaking, all of these players are the best Australia has to offer.

But if you want one from each side, it’s hard to go past New South Wales halfback Nicho Hynes.

Despite shining week in, week out for the Cronulla Sharks in the NRL, Hynes hasn’t been able to land a consistent gig at Origin level, thanks to Penrith Panthers standout Nathan Cleary.

But injury has opened the door for Hynes to make just his second appearance for the Blues, and translate his club form to representative level.

Former Blues captain James Tedesco also has a point to prove, after initially missing the squad in favour of Penrith’s Dylan Edwards, only to be rushed back into the side after an injury.

For Queensland, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is a walking highlight reel. For the Dolphins, he’s a nailed-on starter at fullback, but shifts into the centres come Origin thanks to the likes of Walsh and Kalyn Ponga.

The 22-year-old was on the scoresheet of all three matches last year, so don’t be surprised if he does the same again in 2024.

Who are the bookies backing?

Queensland appear to be the favourites on both sides of the Tasman.

The Maroons are paying $1.77 to the Blues’ $2.05 at the New Zealand TAB, while all four wingers - Xavier Coates, Brian To’o, Zac Lomax and Murray Taulagi - are backed as the safe options to score a try.

The two fullbacks, Reece Walsh and James Tedesco, are the shortest odds to take home man of the match honours.

How to watch?

As always, the Herald will have live coverage from the 10:05pm kick-off.

Elsewhere, Sky Open will broadcast the series opener, live and free, as well as the same coverage on Sky Sport 4.

If you’re wanting something a bit different, our friends at the Alternative Commentary Collective will also have their coverage on Sky Sport 9, starting at 9:55pm.

Predictions?

The Herald experts aren’t listening to the bookies, with the majority backing the Blues to get the job done at home.

Chris Rattue: New South Wales 1-12

Chris Reive: Queensland 1-12

Alex Powell: New South Wales 1-12

Luke Kirkness: New South Wales 1-12

Bonnie Jansen: Queensland 1-12

Lineups?

New South Wales: 1. James Tedesco, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Stephen Crichton, 4. Joseph Sua’ali’i, 5. Zac Lomax, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Nicho Hynes, 8. Jake Trbojevic (c), 9. Reece Robson, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Angus Crichton, 13. Cameron McIness

Interchange: 14. Isaah Yeo, 15. Haumole Olaukau’atu, 16. Spencer Leniu, 17. Hudson Young, 18. Matt Burton, 19. Luke Keary, 20. Mitch Barnett

Queensland: 1. Reece Walsh 2. Xavier Coates 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c) 8. Reuben Cotter 9. Ben Hunt 10. Lindsay Collins 11. Jaydn Su’a 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange: 14. Harry Grant 15. Moeaki Fotuaika 16. J’Maine Hopgood 17. Selwyn Cobbo 18. Felise Kaufusi 19. Brendan Piakura 20. Ezra Mam