Rob Dillingham Is A Product Of Minnesota's New Cap Reality - Zone ...
Timberwolves
Photo Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
After Tim Connelly shocked the Minnesota Timberwolves by trading up for the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft, he told Dane Moore, “I think this Rob Dillingham trade is, in part, a product of the second apron and the roster construction limitations that come with it.”
In addition to Dillingham, the Wolves used pick 27 on Terrence Shannon Jr. By doing so, the Timberwolves have committed to blowing past the second apron for the 2024-25 season and have eliminated their opportunity to use the mid-level exception to sign a player. Now that the second apron is a reality for the Wolves, we must discuss how Dillingham and Shannon affect Minnesota’s salary cap.
The Dillingham trade didn’t include picks or players who would be on Minnesota’s roster next year. Connelly is gambling that the Wolves will be in championship form in 2030 and 2031. To acquire Dillingham, he sent the rebuilding San Antonio Spurs a top-1 protected pick swap and an unprotected first-round pick.
To remain competitive until 2031, the Wolves have drafted young players to create two timelines. The second timeline will likely feature Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, and Dillingham. Before the second round of the draft, Minnesota traded pick 37 and Wendell Moore Jr. to the Detroit Pistons for pick 53. By trading for Dillingham, the Wolves can maintain their current roster.
Minnesota’s cap situation reflects that they have flown past the second apron. The Wolves rank first in total money allocated at $279,835,753. That’s $138 million over the current $141 million salary cap the league set for the 2024-25 season. It also means the Wolves are $17 million over the first apron and $6.484 million over the second apron, with cap holds for Kyle Anderson and any other outgoing free agents.
Because of their cap situation, the Wolves can only sign players from last year’s roster like Anderson, Monte Morris, Jordan McLaughlin, or Luka Garza. It’s their only means of signing a player for over the $1.16 million veteran’s minimum. Dillingham’s $5.24 million cap hit is more than the Wolves could spend on the taxpayer’s MLE, and he’s likely a better player than they could have acquired in free agency. You could say the same thing about Shannon’s $2.12 million rookie salary, which is nearly double the veteran’s minimum.
Drafting these players limits Minnesota’s options for the rest of the offseason, and they have lost the ability to sign outside players for over the veteran’s minimum. The Wolves will also suffer multiple penalties for being above the second apron. They cannot add players’ salaries to acquire a second player via trade, meaning they cannot pair young players with smaller contracts to obtain a better veteran player. The second apron handcuffs the Wolves to their current roster. For example, the Wolves could not have traded Troy Brown Jr. and Shake Milton for Morris if they were in the second apron because Connelly combined Brown and Milton’s salaries to acquire Morris.
The Wolves have also lost their ability to trade for a player using a sign-and-trade unless the trade brings them under the second apron. That means the Timberwolves can no longer trade Karl-Anthony Towns for a player who signs with their current team before the trade unless they shed the $6.484 million that puts them over the second apron.
For example, if the Wolves want to trade Towns for Paul George, LeBron James, or any other free-agent stars, George or James would have to sign a deal for $6.484 million below Towns’ salary for the trade to go through. The Wolves also have to void their trade exceptions from last season because they’re in the second apron.
With trading becoming more challenging for the Wolves and the free agent market limited to just the veteran minimum, Minnesota’s offseason is likely all but complete. The second apron blues don’t get any better during the season. The Wolves will not be eligible to obtain any buyout players during the season or after the trade deadline. That means Kyle Lowry, Marcus Morris, or any other salary casualty or buyout cannot sign with Minnesota.
Regarding the draft, Minnesota’s 2032 first-round pick will be frozen if the Wolves finish the end of the season over the second apron, meaning the Wolves cannot trade that pick. That will continue on a year-to-year basis. Therefore, if they’re above the second apron at the end of the 2025-26 season, their 2033 pick would be frozen.
If the Wolves remain in the second apron for three consecutive years, the league will move their pick to the end of the first round and remain frozen until the draft. These picks are seven years out because Connelly just traded the 2031 pick. However, teams find distant picks valuable, as evidenced by San Antonio’s trade for picks in 2030 and 2031.
Perhaps one of the biggest penalties for the second apron and luxury tax is the financial burden it poses to the franchise. The owners writing the check must match dollar for dollar every cent they are over the tax line. That means whoever owns the Wolves after arbitration will be paying a hefty sum, likely in the $300 million range. It also means that if the Timberwolves decide to bring back Kyle Anderson for $20 million, ownership will have to pay $20 million to Anderson and $20 million in taxes.
Acquiring Dillingham was the latest of Tim Connelly’s savvy moves. He propped Minnesota’s championship window open by moving up to draft Dillingham. He also put the Wolves into a new level of competition that will force them to continue to make creative moves to maintain relevance. Whether Dillingham becomes a force in the NBA or never lives up to the hype, the Wolves are fully entrenched in the second apron and pushing for a championship sooner rather than later.
