Why these 8 NHL teams are in danger of being stuck in the mushy ...

The NHL has its contenders, its basement dwellers and then the forgettable, often overlooked mushy middle.

The mushy middle is home to teams that aren’t good enough to be Stanley Cup contenders but not bad enough to collect picks in the top 5-10 range where you’re most likely to draft future stars. The Minnesota Wild and Calgary Flames (up until their recent rebuild) are prime examples of teams recently stuck in this mediocre territory. There’s nothing wrong with being middle-of-the-pack for a year or two, especially if you’re trying to accelerate from a tear-it-down rebuild to being playoff-competitive again, but eventually everybody wants to escape this no-man’s-land.

It’s pretty straightforward to identify teams that will probably land in the mushy middle this coming season. But the more interesting question is which teams might find themselves stuck here over the medium-term future, for the next three seasons (through the 2026-27 campaign). I went through every NHL team’s roster, cap situation, prospect pool and more to identify clubs likely destined for this reality for the next three years.

The teams we’re going to highlight in this “mushy middle” aren’t all in the same situation. Some of the franchises on this list are aging and capped out. These clubs look like they’ll remain playoff competitive for a bit longer, but beyond the three-season window we’re projecting, they’ve got a bleak future. The opposite is true for the young, rebuilding teams on this list: They may be mediocre for the next three years or so as their young core develops, but four or five years from now, they may blossom into Stanley Cup contenders.

Without further ado, let’s dive in.

New York Islanders

The Islanders made the playoffs last season despite being overlooked and underrated by many out-of-market fans. They’re strong contenders to squeak in again — having Patrick Roy for a full season will have a positive impact (they had the 12th-best record in the NHL once he was hired), they boast one of the best goaltending tandems in the NHL (especially if Ilya Sorokin bounces back) and they added a couple of intriguing top-nine wingers in Anthony Duclair and Maxim Tsyplakov.

New York’s problem is that this roster doesn’t look capable of a deep playoff run anytime soon. The Isles struggle to score, ranking 23rd in goals scored per game over the last two seasons, lack star power/game-breakers and have an aging core with many key players in their late 20s and early 30s.

It’s hard to see how this front office can significantly improve the medium-term outlook. Their cap situation isn’t ideal as they’re held back by inefficient contracts to the likes of Anders Lee and Jean-Gabriel Pageau. Scott Mayfield, Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech have battled injuries and are starting to decline, which is concerning because they’re each locked up for at least the next four years. Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov will be in line for major raises next summer which will further limit the club’s cap flexibility. And to top it all off, they have one of the most shallow prospect pools in the NHL.

There is a path for the Isles to be more than first-round fodder, at least for this season, but it’d require a lot to break right. New York made the playoffs despite having the worst penalty kill in the NHL last season. If that can improve to around league average — and remember, their PK ranked in the top 10 in 2022-23 — they’ll be a tougher team to beat. If Mayfield, Pelech and Pulock can bounce back they’ll have a legitimately high-end blue line once you factor in how much Dobson and Romanov improved last season.

The most probable outcome, however, is landing in the mushy middle again. It’ll require an extraordinary level of creativity and aggressiveness for the Isles to avoid this fate in the medium term.

Seattle Kraken

Seattle’s been on a strange arc over the last two seasons.

In 2022-23, everything broke right for the franchise. Several players had career-best seasons and the Kraken rode the league’s highest five-on-five shooting percentage to Game 7 of Round 2 against Dallas. Last year was the opposite: It felt like nearly everything went wrong. Many players’ production (most notably Matty Beniers) regressed and their finishing luck didn’t just fall off a cliff, it arguably overcorrected as their five-on-five shooting percentage ranked 27th.

The Kraken should be closer to the playoff race than they are to the bottom of the league standings this year. Seattle was the only team that missed the playoffs despite ranking top 10 in goals against per game. They’ll be competitive if they can manufacture more offense and that seems like a realistic aspiration. Seattle signed risky contracts in free agency, but Chandler Stephenson and Brandon Montour will inject more scoring and colleague Dom Luszczyszyn’s model had them as the league’s seventh most improved team this offseason. Beniers was snakebitten last year and should take a major offensive leap in Year 3. Shane Wright is also ready to jump into the NHL full-time and should emerge as a core piece.

It’s hard to see how the Kraken can become anything more than a fringe playoff team over the next three seasons, though. Seattle still lacks top-of-the-lineup star power and the club is hampered by inefficient contracts (Philipp Grubauer, Andre Burakovsky, Jaden Schwartz, Stephenson). There’s no clear path for them to become a Cup contender.

Washington Capitals

The Capitals made the playoffs last season despite a minus-36 goal differential and were swept in the first round. Heading into the summer, it looked like Washington was at risk of tumbling down the standings and soon becoming a bottom feeder. Brian MacLellan’s bold, active offseason moves have revitalized the roster to the point where they should be playoff-competitive again.

Washington’s blue line looks robust and deep with Jakob Chychrun and Matt Roy now in the fold. Andrew Mangiapane profiles as a savvy middle-six pickup. PL Dubois’ contract poses a major long-term risk, but if we’re strictly focusing on short-term improvement, he’s sure to provide more value than trade counterpart Darcy Kuemper, who had lost the starting job in goal.

Can the Caps maintain some semblance of competitiveness beyond this season? It’s far from a guarantee because Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson are another year older, but between Ryan Leonard, Ivan Miroshnichenko and Andrew Cristall the club has some quality prospects on the way. They’re also projected to have $25-30 million in cap space next summer, which can be weaponized to land more impact players.

The Capitals don’t have enough high-end talent to make any noise if they do make the playoffs, but they’re also not bad enough to truly bottom out. This front office is going to do whatever it can to avoid a full tear-it-down rebuild while Ovechkin is still around, and given the cap flexibility at their disposal, they’ll likely continue finding avenues to maintain some level of relevancy.

Los Angeles Kings

L.A. has suffered three consecutive first-round playoff exits and the outlook moving forward doesn’t look much better. The Kings are a solid but unspectacular team — they defend well, have a deep forward group and a quality blue line. However, they aren’t elite in any one area, have questionable goaltending and generally lack star talent. Rob Blake also failed to significantly improve the roster this summer.

Because of the divisional playoff format, the Kings’ path to a deep postseason run will almost certainly require beating the Oilers in either Round 1 or 2. This has been a nightmare matchup for L.A. and if anything, the gap between these two teams on paper is only becoming larger.

The Kings will need Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke to break out as true stars for the club’s outlook to meaningfully change. There’s a chance that can happen but even if it does, it’s probably not happening overnight. L.A. looks destined to continue its trend of above-average regular seasons followed by quick playoff exits.

Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings have arrived as a team that should consistently be in the playoff mix. I’m not sure if they’ve improved enough this summer to actually win one of the final wild-card spots, but they’re at least in the race, just like last season when they were one point away from getting in.

That’s crucial, positive progress.

However, the path for Detroit to take the more meaningful leap to Cup contender status looks difficult over the next three seasons.

For starters, Detroit lacks a true superstar or two, especially at forward. The Red Wings’ prospect pool is exceptionally deep, but the likes of Nate Danielson and Marco Kasper aren’t projected to become stars.

In net, the Red Wings look shaky with none of Cam Talbot, Alex Lyon or Ville Husso inspiring much confidence. They’re in good shape long-term as Sebastian Cossa and Trey Augustine are excellent goaltending prospects, but goalies often take a long time to develop and hit their NHL peak.

Cap-wise, Husso and Petry will come off the books next summer which will free up additional room to bolster the roster for 2025-26. However, they are still hampered by Andrew Copp, Justin Holl and to a lesser extent Ben Chiarot’s contracts.

Big picture, the Red Wings have a bright future. They have a ton of quality prospects on the horizon, with an especially strong long-term outlook on the back end (Simon Edvinsson and Axel Sandin-Pellikka stand out) and in goal. Detroit can eventually become a Cup contender, but because of how long it can take prospects to develop and hit their prime, that doesn’t seem like a probable outcome within the next three seasons.

Ottawa Senators

For the last two seasons, the Senators have looked ready to take a step toward playoff contention only to fall flat on their face. There are reasons to believe they’re finally ready to become more competitive, even though there’s no guarantee it’ll lead to a playoff spot.

Acquiring Linus Ullmark should stabilize the goaltending position, which has been very problematic in recent years. Ottawa, of course, needs to defend well enough that it doesn’t completely leave Ullmark out to dry, but this is a valuable upgrade considering the Senators ranked bottom-five in goal prevention last season.

Up front, Tim Stützle, who’s still only 22, should bounce back and be closer to the 39-goal, 90-point player he was in 2022-23 rather than the 70-point producer he was last year. Stützle has a good chance of developing into one of the premier first-line centers in the NHL as he enters his prime over the next three years, which can have a huge impact in dragging a franchise forward. Having Shane Pinto available for a full season will be a nice boost — he and Ridly Greig will keep improving as they gain more experience.

The jump from being a bottom-10 team to being in the playoff mix looks doable, but it’s going to be challenging to elevate into true contender status over the next three seasons. Ottawa’s prospect pipeline is weak (Scott Wheeler ranked their pool No .31 in January 2024, although since then they’ve added Carter Yakemchuk as a top-10 pick), the depth of its blue line is questionable and the club still has defensive flaws. Ullmark is on an expiring contract and will need a significant raise if he performs well. The Senators can afford to extend him, but it would mean less flexibility to upgrade other parts of the roster.

Winnipeg Jets

You may be surprised to see the Jets land here given they picked up 110 points last year. Simply put, I believe they overachieved in the regular season and will struggle to re-establish themselves as true Cup contenders.

Think about it this way: The Jets couldn’t beat Colorado in Round 1 then lost Tyler Toffoli, Sean Monahan, Brenden Dillon and Nate Schmidt with no major acquisitions to replace them. Winnipeg still has a big hole at the second-line center and on the back end of its top four. Moreover, can a team that’s led by Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor up front do serious playoff damage? Scheifele and Connor aren’t superstars and have defensive flaws. Winnipeg’s top forwards are always going to be weaker on paper than Western contenders like Colorado, Edmonton, Dallas and even Vancouver.

Winnipeg’s future isn’t totally bleak. The Jets have an intriguing prospect pool led by Brad Lambert, Brayden Yager and Colby Barlow, plus Cole Perfetti still has untapped potential. Kevin Cheveldayoff will also have more money to play with next offseason when Neal Pionk and Alex Iafallo’s contracts expire, in addition to the shrinking dead cap hit of Blake Wheeler and Schmidt’s buyout penalties. These factors will ensure Winnipeg remains a quality, middle-of-the-pack team but ascending as a true contender seems unlikely, especially given how hard it is to attract and keep high-end players in the city of Winnipeg.

St. Louis Blues

Doug Armstrong and the Blues are in the middle of a retool-on-the-fly.

St. Louis’ current roster should be in the mix for a wild-card spot — the forward group is legitimately fascinating, especially after some of the bottom-six upgrades this offseason. The Blues also have an above-average prospect pool with the likes of Dalibor Dvorský, Jimmy Snuggerud, Otto Stenberg, Adam Jiřiček and Zach Bolduc among others all potentially graduating to the NHL over the next three seasons.

However, it’s unlikely the Blues can re-emerge as contenders within the next three seasons. Firstly, the blue line is still a mess and while Jiřiček, Philip Broberg and Theo Lindstein are nice young pieces, there’s no future No. 1 defenseman projected in the pipeline. St. Louis’ cap situation isn’t pretty as the club is hampered by Justin Faulk, Torey Krug (although we’ll see if he ends up being stashed on LTIR for the rest of his deal following ankle surgery) and Brayden Schenn’s bad contracts. All of them are in their 30s and have at least three years left on their deal. And despite the strength of their prospect pool, there likely aren’t any transformative, star-level players on the way.

Just missed the list

Teams that were close to making this “mushy middle” list but ultimately missed for one reason or another 

Minnesota Wild: This might be a hot take, but I think the Wild can become a formidable team within three years. Between Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber and Jesper Wallstedt, Minnesota could have a cornerstone star at forward, defense and goalie. I’m not sure you can say that about any other team on the “mushy middle” list. Minnesota will also finally gain major cap relief next summer when Ryan Suter and Zach Parise’s dead cap hit shrinks from $14.7 million to $1.66 million. The Wild have an elite prospect pool with Wallstedt, Danila Yurov, Zeev Buium, Liam Öhgren and Riley Heidt among others all possibly graduating within the next three seasons. They’ll need to work out a Kirill Kaprizov extension for 2026-27 and Bill Guerin’s cap management has been suspect, so there’s certainly still a risk of getting caught in the middle, but I can see the upside case for them to break through and eventually hit a higher ceiling.

Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres’ current roster isn’t any better than Atlantic foes Detroit and Ottawa, and they’ll likely be stuck in the middle of the pack for a couple of seasons, but they could become contenders by 2026-27. Their young forwards (Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens, Zach Benson and JJ Peterka) have tons of untapped potential, they have a strong cap outlook, an elite prospect pool and a quality young goaltending tandem between Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay isn’t the powerhouse it used to be, but I’m not prepared to write the Lightning off just yet. Andrei Vasilevskiy missed the start of last season because of injury and had the worst season of his NHL career with a .900 save percentage. Vasilevskiy bouncing back alone would give the Bolts a major boost. As unpopular as it was to move on from Steven Stamkos, Jake Guentzel profiles as a significant five-on-five upgrade. Tampa Bay’s depth is a concern, but I’m not ready to close the book on a core with Vasilevskiy, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman and Guentzel, especially with Julien BriseBois, one of the NHL’s best general managers, steering the ship. Dark days will eventually come, but I can see Tampa Bay staving off the decline for two or three seasons.

Utah Hockey Club: Utah will be middle-of-the-pack for a year or two but I think it’s only a matter of time before they become a dangerous team. Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther and Matias Maccelli have only scratched the surface of their potential, they’re projected to have nearly $30 million in cap space next summer, they aren’t tied down by any questionable contracts (unlike Detroit and Ottawa, for example), their prospect pool is high-end and they still have surplus draft picks they can trade to acquire win-now help over the next few seasons.

Calgary Flames: After selling off major pieces over the last year, I think the Flames will lose too many games to be part of the mushy middle. I don’t expect them to completely tank, but it’s more likely they collect multiple top-10 picks over the next three seasons rather than being close to the playoff bar.

Pittsburgh Penguins: The Penguins might stay competitive this season, but I think they’re going to be closer to contending for top-10 picks than they are to a playoff spot in a year or two.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Toronto is the fourth-best team in the NHL over the last five seasons based on points percentage. The Leafs’ lack of playoff success may make them mediocre in some fans’ eyes, but to me, they’ve been too strong in the regular season to be considered a team in no man’s land. Toronto’s problem is choking and underperforming its talent level on paper on the biggest stage, not a mediocre roster.

(Photo of Alex Ovechkin and Mathew Barzal: Mike Stobe / NHLI via Getty Images)