Ranking NHL rebuilds: Which teams are most likely to be contenders?

In comparing the NHL’s rebuilding teams against each other, this ranking aims to answer one question: Which organization is the most likely to build a Stanley Cup contender in the next decade? The list includes last season’s non-playoff teams whether they consider themselves rebuilders or not. The primary variables used to determine this list are the quality of young talent in the organizations, the current NHL roster and the amount of star or potential star talents a team has.

Chicago’s rebuild is still a few years away from truly turning the corner, but the club is putting together the pieces it needs. The Blackhawks have the potential superstar every team is searching for in Connor Bedard. They also have a deep stable of young blue line players between Alex Vlasic, Kevin Korchinski, Artyom Levshunov and others. They could use a bit more skill in their organization, but they have premium center and defense talents. The Blackhawks could acquire scoring wingers through the open market as they will likely be a top free-agent choice by the time they start winning again.

The rebuild has been slow and frustrating in Ottawa, but if you take a step back and look at the pieces the Senators have, it’s quite a promising group of young players. They have elite talent up front in Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk, they have center depth and they have premium talent on the blue line. With some steady goaltending, this is an organization that could break up the typical playoff teams in its division.

Anaheim is building up a highly desirable group of young talent, which includes Trevor Zegras who everyone knows is on the trading block. Zegras aside, the Ducks have a lot of young, high-end forward talent, led by Leo Carlsson, and a strong group of young defensemen, too. This is still a very young team that is likely a few more years of talent accumulation and growth away from emerging out of the league’s basement.

Some people will be upset about how highly San Jose is slotted. The Sharks have a long way to go; they must basically add 50 points in the standings to get from last season to contending status. But there are pieces in place: their elite young talent led by No. 1 pick Macklin Celebrini, a lot of quality young pieces they’ve accumulated lately and a lot of cap space. I don’t mean to insinuate they will be contending anytime soon — likely not even in the next five years — but they have a clear path to getting there.

New Jersey is the closest to contention among the teams listed; it is a projected playoff team entering the season and had 112 points two seasons ago. The Devils have legit star talents in the Hughes brothers as well. That they are ranked fifth and not first is more reflective of the fact they are probably done accumulating talent, and the young core they assembled is excellent but not elite, hence why they missed the playoffs last year. If a few players take positive steps, that would change my analysis.

Utah (then-Arizona) has been building since it selected Clayton Keller in the top 10 in 2017, and the result of the last eight years has been some ups and downs but an organization trending in the right direction. Utah has some excellent prospects and a good, young roster as it tries to turn the corner into winning, including by acquiring strong veteran players like Mikhail Sergachev. Utah may not win right away in its first season but it has the components to win soon, although it arguably lacks a true superstar talent.

Buffalo has been a sexy pick to take a big step forward for several years now. The Sabres have drafted high for a long time and have built up an envious group of young players. They have two No. 1 blueliners in Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power and a deep, talented group of forwards. They could become a contender, but at some point, if they can’t progress into a consistent playoff team, their young team will just look like previous iterations of Sabres rebuilds.

Seattle’s expansion started off unsustainably hot, and then it came back to reality. It’s likely going to take time to build a real team, but the Kraken have three excellent young centers in Matty Beniers, Shane Wright and Berkly Catton to start with. They will need to build up their blue-line talent, but their NHL team is already decent with the potential to improve.

Montreal has some very good young forwards in its organization. No. 1 pick Juraj Slafkovsky had a good second NHL season, recent draftee Ivan Demidov is quite talented and seasoned young forwards Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield will be longtime NHL scorers. The Canadiens do need to find a true premium blueliner or two and ideally will get production from a healthy Kirby Dach, or else they will need to find some center help.

The Wild are in a precarious position. Their NHL roster is one of the best among the 16 teams on this list. They have a solid farm system led by Zeev Buium and have quite a few strong prospects despite not drafting high. Hanging over any projection of the Wild’s future is star Kirill Kaprizov, though, who will be a highly desirable free agent in two years. If he were to resign, I would argue the Wild’s position one or two spots higher, but losing him would set them back years.

Columbus’ organization has seemed to be in a rebuild from the second the franchise was born. I wish I could say it’s a quick fix away, but there are probably still a few more years of pain in Columbus. I am an Adam Fantilli super fan and think he has the potential to be a superstar and bring this franchise from the gutter. After him, there are some very good young pieces, but I don’t see the star-level projections on a lot of the Blue Jackets’ recent high picks.

Detroit has a quality NHL team. The Red Wings were top 10 in the league in goals last season. They also have a solid farm system with some excellent high picks on the way who will be pushing for NHL time soon. So why 12th? If this was about becoming a playoff team, I could rank Detroit higher, but I’m looking at the path to winning it all, and other than Dylan Larkin and Moritz Seider, I don’t see the true premium pieces in this organization to carry them the distance.

The Flyers took positive steps forward at the NHL level this season, but it arguably set their rebuild mildly back as they ended up picking 13th in the draft. I expect their team to be close to the bottom of the standings next season. Matvei Michkov is an elite prospect and could be a star in the league, but they need a lot more than him.

St. Louis is stuck in the middle right now as an organization. The Blues have a decent NHL team and farm system, but neither are very strong and there are questions about what their long-term strategy is. They have the pieces to become a potential bubble playoff team, but I don’t see how they get past that level.

Calgary is beginning a downward path in its rebuild cycle after being a top team for several years. It started well with the drafting of Zayne Parekh, but this is probably the beginning of their troubles; the Flames aren’t a quick fix or two away from being a winner again.

It’s tough times in Pittsburgh right now. The Penguins have missed the playoffs the last two years, their farm system is rather thin, and the direction seems to be to try and find a way to make it work with the Sidney Crosby group as opposed to doing a complete reset and acquiring high lottery picks. I honestly don’t know what the path forward is to becoming a contender again, as it seems either nearly impossible or 8-10 years away.

(Photo of Connor McDavid: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)

Corey Pronman is the senior NHL prospects writer for The Athletic. Previously, Corey worked in a similar role at ESPN. Follow Corey on Twitter @coreypronman