Judging biggest overreactions for NFL Week 16 games - ESPN

OK, Jayden Daniels. We see you.

The Commanders' rookie quarterback added to his growing legend Sunday with a nearly impossible comeback victory over the Eagles, who are first in the NFC East. The Eagles, who've spent the past couple of weeks being anointed the league's most complete and dangerous team, led 27-14 going into the fourth quarter. Yes, they lost starting quarterback Jalen Hurts to a concussion in the first quarter, but considering how this team has been playing defense of late, Philadelphia appeared in good shape to hold the lead.

Instead, Daniels threw two touchdown passes to Olamide Zaccheaus to put Washington in front by one point with 9:06 left in the game. And even then, once the Eagles kicked a field goal, intercepted a Daniels pass in Washington territory and kicked another field goal to go up 33-28 with 1:58 to go, we all figured, "Well, valiant effort, but the Eagles are going to hold on here." But Daniels delivered a nine-play, 57-yard touchdown drive that put Washington back on top with six seconds remaining in the game. It was the kind of performance that practically demands overreaction.

We'll begin there and judge a few more potential Week 16 takeaways as legitimate or irrational.

Jump to: Commanders still alive in NFC East race? Penix will lead Falcons to the playoffs? Bengals can still be a problem in AFC field? Steelers will lose their wild-card game? Vikings, Lions battling for No. 1 seed?

A victory in this game would have clinched the division title for the Eagles with two weeks left. Instead, they're 12-3 and two games ahead of 10-5 Washington. Either an Eagles win or a Commanders loss in the final two weeks will hand the Eagles the division crown, and with Philly set to finish against the Cowboys and the checked-out Giants, it's hard not to like its chances.

But it's also not over yet, and the Eagles have no reason to assume the Commanders will lose to the Falcons next week or the Cowboys the week after that. Washington announced Sunday that it's going to make the Eagles work for this.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

At game's end, the Eagles' chances of winning the NFC East stood at 98%, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). You don't have to be a high-level mathematician to know those chances are really good. But Sunday's result, and the circumstances surrounding it, led to other questions.

Will Hurts have to miss more time? If so, could that put the Eagles in jeopardy of losing out? Was this Philadelphia's last chance to catch the Lions and grab the top seed in the NFC? Is Daniels good enough, even at this early stage of his career, that the Commanders are going to be the team nobody wants to face in the playoffs? Is this almost Chiefs-like ability to never be out of a game in the fourth quarter? And could that lead to an upset or two in January?

Those are all questions worth asking and debates worth having at this point. But it's not disrespectful to the Commanders or anything they've accomplished to know the Eagles are still going to win at least one of these last two games.

The Falcons made the decision this past week to bench high-priced veteran starter Kirk Cousins for their rookie first-round draft pick, who helped Atlanta beat the Giants 34-7 in his first NFL start. Penix was 18-for-27 for 202 yards and an interception. He did not throw a touchdown pass. But he also did not take a sack, which seems to represent instant improvement in at least one aspect over the immobile Cousins, who was sacked 18 times in his past eight starts.

The victory moved the Falcons within a half-game of first-place Tampa Bay, and if they can catch the Bucs, the Falcons would own the tiebreaker because they won two head-to-head meetings. Atlanta plays at Washington next week before finishing the season with a Week 18 home game against Carolina. Tampa Bay plays the Cowboys on Sunday night, then finishes with home games against the Panthers and Saints.

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Michael Penix Jr. connects with Drake London for first NFL completion

Michael Penix Jr. connects with Drake London for first NFL completion

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Full disclosure: This is being written before the Bucs' Sunday night game against Dallas, and should they lose that game, the Falcons technically would be back in first place due to the tiebreaker. But I'm predicting the Buccaneers will win that game, probably along with those final two games against eliminated division rivals.

Tampa Bay has won this division three years in a row and is determined to keep it from the team everyone crowned in the offseason after it signed Cousins and drafted Penix. The Falcons let this slip away after a four-game losing streak that preceded their Week 15 victory over the Raiders and Sunday's win over the Giants. The Buccaneers don't intend to give it back. It's easy to feel great about yourself after beating the Giants, but the Falcons' game next week against Washington is by far the toughest-looking one either of these teams has left. And Atlanta can't afford to lose another one.

Don't look now, but Week 16 is going pretty well for a Cincinnati team we all assumed was dead in the water a few weeks ago. As recently as Thursday afternoon, the Bengals' chances to make the playoffs stood at 3%, according to the FPI. Once the Chargers beat the Broncos on Thursday night, those chances went up to 10%. And by the time the Bengals finished beating the Browns on Sunday, they were up to 14%.

These are not huge numbers, and it's still overwhelmingly likely that the final two AFC playoff spots go to the Chargers and Broncos. But consider that the Bengals play the Broncos in Cincinnati this Saturday. If the Bengals win that game, they'd be one game behind Denver for the final playoff spot and would own the tiebreaker. Then in Week 18, if the Bengals beat the Steelers and the Broncos were to lose to the Chiefs, that just about would put Cincinnati in the playoffs. The only other scenarios that would have to happen would be a Colts loss and a Dolphins loss in any of their remaining games.

It's a long shot, but it's impossible.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

We have said this all season, and as long as they're mathematically alive, it's still true: If the Bengals get into the playoffs, nobody will want to play them. Joe Burrow is having the kind of season that would make him a runaway MVP winner if his team were in first place. He has seven straight games with at least three touchdown passes, tied for the fourth-longest streak in NFL history, per ESPN Research. And then Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are still the toughest wide receiver duo in the league to handle, and second-year running back Chase Brown has ignited the run game.

The Bengals have major issues on defense, but so do the Bills and Ravens. And Cincinnati always plays the Chiefs tough. If one of these teams faces the Bengals in the playoffs, it won't feel comfortable about winning until the clock reads 0:00. And at this point, if the Bengals fight their way in, they'd be surging on top of everything else.

Pittsburgh lost its second game in a row Saturday, this one to the division-rival Ravens. These two teams have matching 10-5 records. The Steelers have to play the Chiefs this Wednesday on Christmas, then the Bengals in Week 18. The Ravens play at Houston on Christmas and then finish with Cleveland. If Pittsburgh wins out, it still holds the tiebreaker over Baltimore and would be the AFC North champ. But those are two tough games to win, and the way the Steelers have played the past two weeks against the Eagles and Ravens makes them look a lot more vulnerable than they did for most of the season.

It has been eight years since the Steelers won a playoff game, and they've been eliminated from the postseason in the wild-card round in three of the past four seasons. (They didn't make the playoffs in the other.)

Verdict: OVERREACTION

It's not looking good for the Steelers, but I still don't love the odds of Baltimore finishing a game better than them the rest of the way. The Ravens' defense still doesn't seem trustworthy, and there's a massive pile of historical data that tells us the Steelers will find a way to crush the Bengals' dreams in Week 18 if it comes to that. Plus, it sounds like Pittsburgh could get its best wide receiver, George Pickens, back in time for Wednesday's game after he missed three contests in a row due to a hamstring injury.

ESPN's FPI slightly favors the Ravens to win the division (52%). But even if Baltimore pulls it off, I don't think the Steelers are going to be the same kind of road underdog at, say, Houston as they were in last season's first round in Buffalo. And if they hold off Baltimore to win the division and get a first-round home game against the Chargers or Broncos, I'd bet they would be favored in either of those matchups.

This is a better team than the ones Mike Tomlin has been dragging into the playoffs in recent years, and we shouldn't hold the Steelers' recent postseason history against this season's version.

Detroit and Minnesota each won Sunday, meaning they're still tied for first place in the NFC North with 13-2 records. They're also tied for first in the NFC at large after the Eagles' loss to the Commanders dropped Philadelphia's record to 12-3.

Detroit had the easier time Sunday, beating the Bears 34-17 early Sunday, while the Vikings had to hold off the Seahawks in a 27-24 dogfight during the late games. The Lions beat the Vikings 31-29 in Minnesota in Week 7, and the two teams are on a collision course for a Week 18 meeting in Detroit that could have massive implications for playoff seeding at the top of the NFC.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

I'll admit that I wrote the opposite a few weeks ago because I thought the Vikings would have a harder time continuing their winning ways than the Lions. And that's still possible.

Detroit plays a Monday night game in San Francisco in Week 17, while the Vikings host the Packers, who are behind both teams in the division race, on Sunday afternoon. If they both win, then their Week 18 matchup is for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. If they both lose, then Week 18 could be for the No. 1 seed, depending on what the Eagles do next weekend. But if the Lions beat the Niners and the Vikings lose to the Packers, the Lions would clinch the division because they'd be 5-0 in division games while the Vikings would be 3-2. That means, even if the Vikings beat the Lions in Week 18 to tie them, they'd still lose the tiebreaker and could not be the No. 1 seed.

I'm done underestimating the Vikings, who are no longer a fun surprise team. The Vikings are one of the best teams in the NFL. The Lions have been the best team in the league, and they might still be now, despite their injuries. But the Vikings deserve our respect, and we shouldn't be stunned if in two weeks, they are the ones with the bye.