Expert's guide to landing the Melbourne Cup trifecta
Racing writers Danny Russell and Peter Ryan pull apart the Melbourne Cup field in search of trifecta riches.
Danny Russell: Right, Pete, you need to apply your footy tipping chops to Tuesday’s Cup field. After burning the midnight oil, I have narrowed it down to six chances, and no more. Where are you at?
Peter Ryan: Funnily enough, I often become more sentimental when tipping horses than footy as there are some stories in racing you’d love to see come true, whereas someone wins or loses football then there is always next week. There is no next week (and perhaps even next year or next decade) for a few of those owners and trainers, with Chris Waller and Ciaron Maher notable exceptions, of course. My initial assessment – and removing sentiment – is that it will come down to the big guns again, with classy horses now winning the Cup. The next step is separating the classy runners, of which there are about seven in my view.
Top Melbourne Cup chance Buckaroo.Credit: Getty Images
Danny: It was hard to go past the run of Buckaroo in the Caulfield Cup. It had more flashing lights than the casinos of Las Vegas Strip on a Saturday night. But I still have slight doubts over it running out a strong 3200 metres. I’m marking it third, with a Jamie Kah fairytale winner to come.
Peter: Never been to Vegas believe it or not, but Reno was like a second home for an unforgettable 24 hours once. I digress because Buckaroo is clearly among my seven with eye-catching Caulfield Cup placegetters inevitably running well in the Melbourne Cup. I heard the same queries over distance about Without A Fight and Verry Elleegant. How is Buckaroo different? In a less-than-deep field, Vauban strikes me as the overlooked horse after Willie Mullins worked him too hard ahead of last year’s race.
Danny: I’ve got Vauban in my top three. There seems to be a groundswell of support for the Irish raider among the good judges. But we’ve been here before – they couldn’t get enough on him last year, and he was gone 400m from home. He turned betting tickets into confetti quicker than a paper shredder. This year, though, I’ve got a tingling feeling. I suspect we might be celebrating a Jamie Kah win by the race’s end. I’m tipping her Okita Sushi on top.
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Peter: Thanks for referring to me as a good judge. I’m not sure that is appropriate, but it’s an opinion you are welcome to hold. Jamie Kah would be a fairytale winner, particularly given she only landed the ride late, but Okita Soushi would surprise me if he beat this mob to be first home. His form is strong. His Moonee Valley Cup win after a Herbert Power placing shows he has well and truly improved after a year here, as Without A Fight did last year when he was a different horse in his second Melbourne Cup. It’s a great year for female jockeys, by the way, with Kah, Rachel King, Winona Costin and Hollie Doyle all set to ride in the race. Four is a new record after three ran in the race last year with the light weights providing opportunities. Things have changed, but Kingston Rule was the most recent Melbourne Cup winner to win the Moonee Valley Cup and that was in 1990 - a Collingwood premiership year from memory - and before Nirvana’s Never Mind came out. I think you had hair!!
Danny: Showing my age here, but last time I had locks Damien Oliver was riding his first Cup winner on Doreimus, and Eddie McGuire still hadn’t taken over at Collingwood. But no point living in the past. It’s all about Tuesday, and I have Okita Soushi on top, Buckaroo and Vauban in my top three, and I am thinking the country Cups winning pair of Onesmoothoperator and Sea King pose the biggest threats. That rounds out my top five. Where are you at?
Peter: I am on Vauban to learn from his mistakes at this stage with Buckaroo to finish second. I’d like to go wide for third with Onesmoothoperator, Sea King, Land Legend and Absurde all in the mix but I have settled right here, right now on a long shot in Sharp ‘N’ Smart to finish third. The VRC Derby winner showed signs in the Moonee Valley Cup that she could return to that form and give punters some value in the race. You might think that’s absurd, but I have a hunch, which is not quite your tingling feeling about Kah’s mount, but close.
Danny: We are all about hunches and tingling feelings, Pete, but sometimes you need a tip from the horse’s mouth. Or the trainer’s mouth in this instance. Ciaron Maher is bullish about Interpretation. It is absolutely ready to peak. It rounds out my top six, and is a must for quinellas, trifectas and first fours. Giddyup.
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