Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop prediction, pick, start time for UFC ...

Mauricio Ruffy and James Llontop meet Saturday on the UFC 309 main card at Madison Square Garden in New York. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom. 

Last event: 4-1 UFC main cards, 2024: 95-89-3

Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop UFC 309 preview

This fight takes on a bit of a different look after Llontop (14-4 MMA, 0-2 UFC) missed the catchweight limit of 165 pounds, while Ruffy (10-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) came in just under the limit. Both men are early in their UFC tenures after earning contracts through Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023. … Ruffy won his promotional debut this past May with a TKO of Jamie Mullarkey at UFC 301. … Llontop, meanwhile, is still in search of his first UFC win after dropping his first two appearances.

Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop UFC 309 expert pick, prediction

Despite having guaranteed action fights between dependable veterans like Jim Miller and Damon Jackson on the prelims, the UFC matchmakers decided to kick off the paid portion of the card with an impromptu catchweight bout between Mauricio Ruffy and [autotag]James Llontop[/autotask].

In the matchmakers’ defense, Ruffy – who is a fantastic prospect to feature – was initially supposed to meet Serra-Long product Charlie Campbell. But with that fight falling through, Llontop was the one who was brought in on short notice.

Llontop is a tough Peruvian on the come-up, but I believe that the 25-year-old will be out-gunned in the size and skills department.

Add in the fact that Llontop struggled on the scales en route to missing the catchweight limit, and it’s hard not to favor the Fighting Nerds rep in Ruffy to style in this spot.

Llontop looks incredibly durable, but I suspect that Ruffy forces a stoppage via strikes by the beginning of Round 3.

Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop UFC 309 odds

The oddsmakers and the public are heavily favoring the Brazilian fighter, listing Ruffy (-850) and Llontop (+540) via FanDuel.

Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop UFC 309 start time, how to watch

As the main card opener, Ruffy and Llontop are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 10:15 p.m. ET. The fight will stream on ESPN+.

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 309.