Why is the magnetic North Pole moving closer to Russia?
For centuries, the magnetic north pole steadily tracked along Canada's northern shore. But in recent decades, it has taken a new path, accelerating across the Arctic Ocean toward Russia's Siberia province at varying speeds that have puzzled scientists.
The magnetic north pole is the direction in which compass needles point, which is not to be confused with the geographic North Pole, or 'True North'—a fixed point where all longitude lines intersect and which serves as Earth's rotational axis.
The key to this mysterious movement lies deep within our planet, about 2,000 miles below the surface.
"The magnetic poles shift because the magnetic field is an actively generated feature of our planet—the outer core," William Brown, a geomagnetism researcher at the British Geological Survey (BGS), told Newsweek.
Brown explained that the outer core "is full of molten iron, convecting and flowing vigorously, and generating an unpredictably varying magnetic field as a result."
While scientists can monitor these changes, predicting future movements remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of these deep-Earth processes.
The BGS, along with other organizations, has geomagnetic observatories all over the world designed to precisely measure the Earth's magnetic field and pinpoint the poles.
Brown added, "We monitor the magnetic field to estimate how it is changing and how the flow of material in the outer core is changing, and then predict how we think it will continue for the next 5 years."
The magnetic north pole's journey has shown dramatic changes in speed and direction over recent decades. After remaining relatively stable along the Canadian Arctic for centuries, it entered the Arctic Ocean in the 1990s and began its march toward Siberia.
The pole's movement has varied significantly:
From 1600 to 1990: Moved approximately 10-15 kilometers (roughly 6 to 9 miles) per yearEarly 2000s: Accelerated to roughly 55 kilometers (about 34 miles) annuallyPast five years: Slowed to about 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) per year.According to Brown, the South Pole is much more stable: "The magnetic South Pole has moved very little, covering about the same distance in a century that the north pole did in a decade."
This movement is tracked by the World Magnetic Model, a collaborative effort between the British Geological Survey and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The model's importance extends beyond scientific interest: it's crucial for navigation systems worldwide, from smartphone compasses to military submarines operating in Arctic waters.
But where the north pole will go next is a mystery.
"The north pole might very well change course—and/or slow down or accelerate—at some point in the near future," Arnaud Chulliat, a geophysicist affiliated with the University of Colorado Boulder and the NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, previously told Newsweek.
This uncertainty means that the World Magnetic Model must be updated every five years. With the last version released in 2019, a new model is set to come out in the coming months.
"We really cannot predict well how the field will change beyond 10 years at present," Ciaran Beggan, a geophysicist with the BGS, previously told Newsweek.
"So I cannot say whether the dip pole will ever reach Siberia as it might stop and reverse in a decade's time."
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Update 11/18/24 9:50 a.m. ET: The article was updated with comments from William Brown.
