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South Africa named their matchday squad well in advance and there was only one change from the side that kept Scotland tryless as Bongi Mbonambi was named to replace the injured Malcolm Marx, whilst Eten Etzebeth was passed fit to start.
It includes 11 starters that were also on the field at the commencement of their 19-16 loss to Ireland in Dublin last year, but the talk of the press pack focused on the Springboks’ decision to stick with the forward-heavy 7-1 bench that they used when handing New Zealand their biggest ever losing margin (35-7) just last month.
Ireland have achieved a great deal around the world since 2019 from a Grand Slam to an historic inaugural series win in New Zealand, but their history of seven quarter-final appearances and nothing more continues to loom over them as a curse.
After getting through a soft group in 2019 they were steamrolled by the All Blacks and haven’t yet had an opportunity to redeem themselves in rugby’s showpiece event, but this is a chance to show that last year’s Autumn Nations Series event was no fluke.
However, they’re up against a nation that knows how to get the job done at a World Cup, with the 2019 tournament a prime example as the Springboks picked themselves up to win the title despite their pool stage loss to New Zealand and seven defeats in the 18 months leading up to it.
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South Africa have conceded just 39 points across their last five matches and will have learned immensely from the previous head-to-head where they were out-mauled by the Irish and the make-up of their bench suggests they intend to rectify that.
We believe they can and the latest Rugby World Cup odds give the Springboks a -2.5 handicap, which is our first betting pick on the match.
Tip: South Africa -2.5 points - 10/11 with BetVictor
Ireland need to start betterIreland got away with Romania opening the scoring and failing to cross the line within 20 minutes against Tonga, but the absence of Ireland’s normally slick openings is an area of concern when facing stronger opposition.
Prior to that, Ireland had scored the opening try in all five Six Nations games and their three August warm-ups, but they are going to find it much tougher to cut their way through a Springboks defence that has conceded just four first-half tries from eight games this year.
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The Springboks have a perfect 20-0 winning record since their 2019 World Cup triumph when being the first to find the line, including in the last four of their six consecutive wins.
As such, our first two picks should go hand in glove with one another.
Tip: South Africa to score first try - 5/6 with Unibet
Hansen to hound the Boks againWhether it’s making the highlights reel of the Autumn Nations Series last year, or taking on a 138kg Sharks prop in a bit of stand-up scuffling, there’s something about the sight of South Africans that gets a bit extra out of Connacht winger Mack Hansen.
Hansen got over the gain line on multiple occasions in Ireland’s hard-fought 19-16 win over the Springboks in Dublin last year, shining in what was just his seventh Test.
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Since the start of that game he has gone on to score in six of his last 12 appearances for Ireland, including in two Six Nations games this year and perhaps most importantly in last week’s outing against Tonga, which has him coming into this game both hungry and polished.
There’s no doubt that South Africa head coach Jacques Nienaber will have had one eye on how to counter his threat this time around, but conversely if the South Africans can smother Ireland’s strong maul game, the wingers are bound to come into play.
Tip: Mack Hansen to score a try - 13/8 with bet365
Aaron Murphy @AaronMurphyFS
After five years as a betting trader and several more as a sports writer, Aaron is dedicated to using his wealth of experience and devotion to statistical analysis to deliver punters all the information they need to try and make a winning call.
