Three things we learned from Tottenham 2-2 Roma in Europa League

Thanksgiving Day football hasn’t always been kind to Tottenham Hotspur. In fact, the last time Spurs played on Turkey Day in 2021, they lost 2-1 to Slovenian side NS Mura in Maribor. This time around the results were a little better, though it was still a rather disappointing 2-2 draw against AS Roma in the Europa League. Son Heung-Min converted an early penalty before Evan Ndicka leveled for the visitors, and Brennan Johnson continued his hot goal scoring form late in the first half.

On balance, Tottenham outplayed Claudio Ranieri’s men, but they couldn’t find a match-clinching third goal despite numerous chances, and former Bayern & Dortmund man Mats Hummels bundled home an injury-time cross to give the Romanistas a late draw.

A disappointing result to be sure, as a win would’ve cemented Spurs as firm favorites to finish in the top 8 of the Group Stage standings and earn an eventual bye to the Round of 16. Here are three things we learned from Thursday’s match at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Spurs fans shouldn’t be surprised by this result. While it’s been a while since we’ve been in the Europa League, we have plenty of experience with European fixtures that are entertaining, but utterly ridiculous affairs. I don’t think anyone would say that Spurs were at their best against Roma, but they put out a pretty strong starting XI and did manage to put up 3.74 xG against a side that hasn’t won in their last five matches and is on their third manager of the season. Spurs struggled with Roma’s high press for decent chunks of the match, but once they figured out how to get past the first line of the press there was acres of space in behind, and Tottenham looked very dangerous on the counter. In that sense, the story of the match was more about how Spurs just weren’t clinical enough with their finishing — they hit the woodwork a number of times, had another cleared off the line, and should’ve had at least three goals if not more.

That said, their inability to put the match away could’ve been a lot more costly. Roma are struggling this season but they have some impressive offensive talent in Hummels, Paulo Dybala, and Stephan El Shaarawy. Roma had three goals called back for offside violations in this match and dramatically added to their own xG (2.52) when they started pouring men forward late. Hummels’ injury-time goal was unfortunate (and extremely stupid) but it’d be hard to say that it wasn’t deserved, as Roma had been pushing for a goal for quite a bit of time at that point.

So it was a pretty dumb game. Two points dropped to be sure, but we have seen worse results in this competition past years and sometimes the ball just doesn’t want to goal. And at least they didn’t lose!

The big storyline coming into this match was Spurs’ starting keeper, Guglielmo Vicario, injuring his ankle in the big win over City at the weekend, one which required surgery and which will keep him sidelined for months. That puts Tottenham’s Europa League and Premier League future in the Jack Reacher-sized mitts of 36-year old reserve Fraser Forster. And that’s scary, because while Forster is an experienced pro and a good shot stopper, in a lot of ways he’s everything Vicario is not — big, slow, relatively immobile, and uncomfortable with the ball at his feet, all things that makes Spurs fans super nervous in an Ange-Ball system that demands nimble keepers who can sweep up behind a high defensive line.

Forster’s performance against Roma was something of a mixed bag. It was not a poor performance by any means — he made five saves against a pretty furious late Roma attack, including a couple that were pretty outstanding stops. He also displayed some quick reactions, including bundling away an ill-timed back header from Pedro Porro.

But it was clear that Forster was not as comfortable in this system as Vicario. He played decently well out of the back but there were some nervy moments and a lot more mid-range passes from the box than we’re used to seeing from Googly Elmo, and while he got down to make a few smart saves, he often seemed glued to his line. And he also got beat four times, though three of them were called back for offside.

So not a poor match by any means, but also not one that will settle Spurs fans too much as they get ready for a very busy holiday fixture period with Forster in goal for much of it. You have to wonder though how Big Fras will handle opponents who are decidedly better than Roma in the upcoming weeks, because while his performances this season are probably not worthy of the initial panic from supporters after Vicario’s injury, the weaknesses are glaring, and fluttering nerves will likely be the norm until Elmo gets back, or Spurs fortify their keeper ranks in January.

Thursday’s draw dropped Spurs — just barely — out of the top eight in the Europa League “Swiss Model” group stage standings. They’re currently 9th on goal differential with 10 points from five matches, but only three points from the top spot. This means they’re still in a good position overall. The top eight in the standings get an important pass to the Round of 16 and avoid having to play a home-and-home playoff to qualify for the next stage. A win would’ve put Spurs in the drivers’ seat, but they’re still in a good position overall.

People much smarter than me (i.e. Joel Wertheimer) have crunched the numbers and suggest that 16 points is the magic number needed to be assured of a top eight finish. Spurs have three remaining matches — at Rangers (Dec. 12), at Hoffenheim (Jan. 23) and home to Elfsborg (Jan. 30). Of those three, Rangers at Ibrox will present the biggest challenge, as they are currently one spot ahead of Spurs and level with them on points. Hoffenheim and Elfsborg are currently both in the bottom 12 and face crashing out of the competition altogether. Two wins will be enough to earn Spurs the bye, and five points might also do it with some favorable results. But even if Spurs don’t finish top eight, they’ve done enough to make the playoff round. Even if Spurs don’t win at Rangers there’s no need to panic.