Fulham vs Liverpool Prediction: EFL Cup Semi-Final Preview
Liverpool came from behind to win the first leg 2-1 at Anfield, but this tie is still very much in the balance. We look ahead to the EFL Cup semi-final second leg with our Fulham vs Liverpool prediction and preview.
Liverpool overcame an early scare in the first leg of this EFL Cup semi-final tie at Anfield, coming from behind to take a 2-1 lead to London for Wednesday’s return match. Still battling on four fronts, they are taking the competition seriously once again.
Willian had put Fulham into a shock first-half lead, but goals from Curtis Jones and Cody Gakpo after the break turned the game and the tie on its head. Liverpool weren’t quite at full strength for the game, but it was the second time this season that Fulham have caused them real problems, and Liverpool shouldn’t be taking anything for granted here.
In December, Liverpool beat Fulham 4-3 at Anfield, but Marco Silva’s side had come from behind twice to take a 3-2 lead with only 10 minutes of the game remaining, only for Wataru Endo and Trent Alexander-Arnold to score twice in two minutes to secure a dramatic home win. Fulham clearly have more than enough to cause Liverpool problems and here, on home soil, they will fancy their chances of an upset.
They don’t have history on their side, though. Liverpool have progressed to the final on eight of the nine previous occasions they’ve won the first leg of an EFL Cup semi-final tie. The exception was in 1997-98, when they were eliminated by Middlesbrough after winning the first leg at Anfield 2-1. The Reds just need a draw to progress to what would be a record 14th League Cup final – at least four more than any other side.
Meanwhile, Fulham have never reached the League Cup final. They would be the 37th different team to reach the final of the competition, and first maiden finalists since Bradford and Swansea in 2012-13. However, only 25% of teams to lose the first leg of a semi-final tie have reached the final (23/92). It also doesn’t bode well that Fulham are winless in their last five home games against Liverpool since a 1-0 victory in December 2011.
In terms of team news, there could be good news for Fulham, with Adama Traoré hoping to overcome a hamstring injury in time to play here. Tim Ream should also be available after he missed the defeat to Chelsea on the first weekend of the split Premier League MD 21, with Fulham having enjoyed a full week off in the lead-up to this match. Calvin Bassey, Alex Iwobi and Fodé Ballo-Touré are all away at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Liverpool will soon have Mohamed Salah back at the club from AFCON duty, but unfortunately for them that is only because they want to assess and treat the muscle injury he sustained while playing in Ivory Coast. Curtis Jones should be in contention despite picking up what manager Jürgen Klopp described as a “niggle” in Sunday’s win over Bournemouth.
There is also good news in the form of Andy Robertson making his long-awaited return from a shoulder injury. Pep Lijnders confirmed on Tuesday that the Scot would be in the squad on Wednesday night, though the game comes slightly too soon for Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dominik Szoboszlai.
Although Liverpool have had the better of recent meetings between these sides, they have invariably been close games. Not since a 2-0 win for Liverpool in November 2018 – eight meetings ago – has a match between these teams been won by more than one goal. However, Fulham have only won one of those games (a 1-0 win at Anfield in March 2021), and have lost four of them.
Fulham haven’t beaten Liverpool at home since December 2011, losing three and drawing two of the five meetings since then.
Recent FormFulham come into the game in unpredictable form. They have won only two of their last eight games – those coming against title-chasing Arsenal in the Premier League and Championship side Rotherham in the FA Cup – losing five and drawing one.
Liverpool, meanwhile, are on a fine run, with Sunday’s 4-0 thrashing of Bournemouth their fifth successive win in all competitions and their eighth game without defeat. In fact, they have only lost three matches all season – two in the Europa League and one in the Premier League when they were reduced to nine men at Tottenham.
Opta Power RankingsThe Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off in this match, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
Fulham vs Liverpool PredictionEven though they only need a draw to progress to the final, the Opta supercomputer predicts Liverpool will win this second leg inside 90 minutes. They won the match in 59.3% of the supercomputer’s simulations.
Fulham got the win they need to, at the very least, take the tie to extra-time in 19.8% of simulations. A draw, which would see Fulham dumped out, occurred 20.9% of the time.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
